BMIE Market 01778

Middlesex County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	14,033 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±99 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	5,110 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±169 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	13,109 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,058 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$219,375 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±27,685 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	45.1 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,536 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±657 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$977,300 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±35,807 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	15.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	21 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 01778
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	11.4 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+10.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	-8.7% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+31.3% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+40.0% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	16 (range 11–21) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, -0.3 per year, r² 0.19) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	66 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	85 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	55 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	50 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 01778. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, -0.3 restaurants per year, r² 0.19, confidence Low.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	84.9	85	40%	+33.9
Restaurant Opportunity Score	54.9	55	35%	+19.2
Market Momentum Score	50.4	50	25%	+12.6

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 85 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	14,033	76	40%	+30.2
Median household income (ACS)	219,375	99	40%	+39.7
Households (ACS)	5,110	75	20%	+14.9

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 55 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	-8.7	19	35%	+6.7
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.0	53	25%	+13.2
Population (ACS)	14,033	76	20%	+15.1
Median household income (ACS)	219,375	99	20%	+19.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 50 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	10.5	68	50%	+34.1
10-year restaurant growth	-8.7	19	30%	+5.7
20-year restaurant growth	31.3	53	20%	+10.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (33)

By cuisine

American 5 · Asian 3 · Bakery 3 · Chinese 3 · Coffee 3 · Dessert 3 · Italian 3 · Japanese 3 · Pizza 3 · Sushi 3 · Breakfast 2 · Mexican 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Seafood 2 · Steakhouse 2 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Thai 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 20 · Bar 5 · Quick service 5 · Bakery 4 · Casual dining 4 · Dessert 3 · Café 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Specialty food shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
110 Grill 110 Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	171 Commonwealth Rd	open
Bertucci's Italian Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	14 Elissa Ave	open
Big Jeff's World Famous Cigar Bar and Deli	Bar		6 Timber Ln	open
China Rose Asian Cuisine And Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Sushi · Japanese · Chinese	15 E Plain St	open
China Rose Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		15 E Plain St	open
Chocolate Therapy	Dessert	Dessert	63 Andrew Ave	open
Coach Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse · Seafood · American	55 Boston Post Rd	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Delivery-focused · Quick service	Pizza	25 Main Street	open
Dudley Chateau	Casual dining · Bar		20 Crest Rd	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service		289 Boston Post Road	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Coffee shop · Quick service · Dessert · Bakery	Coffee · Dessert	15 E Plain St	open
Einstein Bros. Bagels Einstein Bros. Bagels	Bakery	Bakery · Breakfast	44 Main St	open
Genji Express	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi	317 Boston Post Rd	open
Giacomo's Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	14 Elissa Ave	open
Jersey Mike's Subs Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	44 Main St	open
Jindu Asian Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	131 Boston Post Rd	open
Mel and Ernie's Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)		310 Commonwealth Rd	open
Mel's Commonwealth Cafe	Café	Coffee · Breakfast · American	310 Commonwealth Rd	open
Not Canada	Bar · Dessert	Dessert	45 Lake Shore Dr	open
Prime131 Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	131 Boston Post Rd	open
Spice & Pepper	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Thai	236 Boston Post Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Café · Coffee shop · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	44 Main St	open
Takara Wayland Takara Medfield	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	15 Ellissa Ave	open
Testa Restaurant Group	Restaurant (service type not stated)		14 Elissa Ave	open
The Bagel Table	Bakery	Bakery	21 Andrew Ave	open
The Local Local Kitchens	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	400 Boston Post Rd	open
The Villa Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Seafood	124 E Plain St	open
Viva Mexican Grill and Tequileria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	15 E Plain St	open
Water Lily	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	309 Boston Post Rd	open
Wayland Pizza House	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	336 Boston Post Rd	open
Wayland Variety & Deli	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Sandwiches	70 Boston Post Rd	open
Yo Boca Taco	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	28 Boston Post Rd	open
Liberty Pizza Of Cochituate	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	116 Main St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	16	15	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1995	16	15	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	18	17	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	19	18	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1998	17	16	10	5	—	1	NAICS1997
1999	20	18	13	5	—	1	NAICS1997
2000	20	18	12	4	2	1	NAICS1997
2001	23	21	12	4	5	1	NAICS1997
2002	18	16	10	2	4	1	NAICS1997
2003	18	16	9	4	3	1	NAICS2002
2004	19	17	8	5	4	1	NAICS2002
2005	18	17	9	4	4	1	NAICS2002
2006	18	17	9	4	4	1	NAICS2002
2007	15	14	7	3	4	1	NAICS2002
2008	16	14	7	3	4	1	NAICS2007
2009	14	14	8	2	4	—	NAICS2007
2010	15	15	9	2	4	—	NAICS2007
2011	18	17	11	2	4	—	NAICS2007
2012	19	19	12	3	4	—	NAICS2012
2013	23	23	13	5	5	—	NAICS2012
2014	20	20	13	2	5	—	NAICS2012
2015	18	18	11	2	5	—	NAICS2012
2016	18	18	12	2	4	—	NAICS2012
2017	20	19	12	—	5	—	NAICS2017
2018	20	19	12	3	4	—	NAICS2017
2019	18	17	10	3	4	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	14	8	—	4	—	NAICS2017
2021	17	15	8	3	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	20	18	11	—	5	—	NAICS2022
2023	23	21	10	5	6	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 01778. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
02493	3.0 mi	7	2023
01776	3.6 mi	34	2023
01701	4.8 mi	69	2023
01760	5.0 mi	94	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.