BMIE Market 02176

Middlesex County, Massachusetts · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	29,650 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±28 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	12,401 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±488 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	26,983 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	11,751 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$133,953 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±14,410 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	43.6 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,970 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±149 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$822,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,886 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	4.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	45 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 02176
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	14.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+12.5% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+15.4% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+50.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+114.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	46 (range 42–50) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.5 per year, r² 0.40) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	77 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	91 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	66 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 02176. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.5 restaurants per year, r² 0.40, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Massachusetts and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 491, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 77 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	90.9	91	40%	+36.4
Restaurant Opportunity Score	70.1	70	35%	+24.5
Market Momentum Score	65.9	66	25%	+16.5

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	29,650	89	40%	+35.5
Median household income (ACS)	133,953	94	40%	+37.5
Households (ACS)	12,401	90	20%	+18.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 70 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	15.4	59	35%	+20.6
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	15.2	52	25%	+13.0
Population (ACS)	29,650	89	20%	+17.7
Median household income (ACS)	133,953	94	20%	+18.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 66 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	12.5	71	50%	+35.3
10-year restaurant growth	15.4	59	30%	+17.7
20-year restaurant growth	50	65	20%	+13.0

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (67)

By cuisine

Coffee 12 · Pizza 11 · Italian 10 · American 9 · Bakery 7 · Asian 6 · Japanese 5 · Sushi 5 · Dessert 4 · Breakfast 3 · Mexican 3 · Thai 3 · Chinese 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Seafood 2 · Hawaiian / Pacific 1 · Hot dogs 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Middle Eastern 1 · Spanish / tapas 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 38 · Bakery 9 · Bar 8 · Coffee shop 8 · Dessert 8 · Café 7 · Casual dining 6 · Quick service 5 · Brewery / taproom 3 · Delivery-focused 2 · Specialty food shop 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Absolutely Fabulous	Restaurant (service type not stated)		454 Main St	open
Alfredos Italian Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	126 W Emerson St	open
Bangkok Bar Shi	Bar	Thai · Sushi · Japanese	462 Main St	open
Big Fin Poké - Melrose Big Fin Poké	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Hawaiian / Pacific · Sushi · Japanese · Healthy / salads / bowls	531 Main St	open
Bobby C's Ristorante	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	20 Main St	open
Bohemian Coffeehouse	Coffee shop · Café · Bakery	Coffee · Bakery	132 W Emerson St	open
Caffè Nero	Coffee shop	Coffee	530 Main St	open
Caruso's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	685 Main St	open
Cloud 9 in Melrose	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Coffee	40 W Wyoming Ave	open
Coffee Tea and Me	Café	Coffee	421 Main St	open
Colette Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	465 Main St	open
Comella's Melrose	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	478A Main St	open
D'Amici's Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	462 Main St	open
Domino's Domino's Pizza	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	385 Franklin St	open
Dunkin Donuts Dunkin'	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery		open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	348 Main St	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee	470 Lynn Fells Pkwy	open
eatshawbak	Bakery	Bakery · Middle Eastern	36 W Wyoming Ave	open
Ernie's Lunch	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Breakfast	458 Franklin St	open
Feng Shui	Restaurant (service type not stated)		444 Main St	open
Friendly Ice Cream Shop	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	106 Main St	open
FUMI Hibachi. Sushi. Chinese (Takeout)	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Chinese · Sushi · Asian · American	381 Franklin St	open
Gabriella's Italian Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	517 Main St	open
Giacomo's	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	454 Main St	open
Hannah’s Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom		364 Main St	open
Jamba Jamba	Juice, smoothie, tea · Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Juice / smoothies · Bakery · Breakfast	496-498 Main Street	open
Jitters Cafe Inc	Café · Coffee shop	Coffee · Sandwiches	24 Main St	open
Jitters Cafe Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		12 Main St	open
Kennedy's Ice Cream Bar	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	888 Main St	open
La Qchara	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Coffee · Latin American (other)	506 Franklin St	open
Liberty Bell Roast Beef and Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · American	886 Main St	open
Lisa's Family Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	45 W Wyoming Ave	open
Melrose Diner	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	44 W Wyoming Ave	open
Melrose Garden	Restaurant (service type not stated)		57 W Wyoming Ave	open
Melrose House of Pizza	Delivery-focused	Pizza · Italian	475 Main St	open
Mexico Lindo	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	449 Main St	open
Mother's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	524 Franklin St	open
My Diner	Casual dining	American	399 Main St	open
Ocean Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	16 Oak Grove Ave	open
Papa Gino's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	417 Main St	open
Peacuddy's Cafe and Bakery	Café	Coffee	506 Franklin St	open
Peppino's Italian Market	Specialty food shop · Quick service	Italian · Sandwiches	954 Main St	open
Petrone's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	438 Main St	open
Pho Chili, Inc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		57 W Wyoming Ave	open
Planted Organic Cafe	Café	Coffee · Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	523 Main St	open
Red Rose Chinese Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese · Asian	444 Main St	open
Rising Eagle Publick House	Casual dining · Bar	American	505 Main St	open
Santa Fe Burrito Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	417 Main St	open
Sonnys Fire And Wood Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		35 Essex St	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	521 Main St	open
Stearns & Hill Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	505 Main St	open
Sushi Corner	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	18c Essex St	open
Sweet Spot Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	163 W Emerson St	open
T'ahpas 529	Bar	Spanish / tapas · Mediterranean	529 Franklin St	open
Table Four	Bar		169 W Emerson St	open
Tenoch Mexican	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	517 Main St	open
Thai Chili Basil	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	454 Franklin St	open
The Bangkok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Thai · Asian	57 W Wyoming Ave	open
The Cellar Fine Wines & Beers	Bar · Winery / distillery / taproom · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Brewery / taproom		4 Main St	open
The Irish Dog	Quick service · Bar	Hot dogs	162 Tremont St	open
Theo's Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	55 W Wyoming Ave	open
Trifecta Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Bar		80 Upham St	open
Turner Seafood Grill Turner's Seafood	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	506 Main St	open
V.F.W. Norman Prince Post 1506	Bar		428 Main St	open
We Are Raising the Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other			open
Wood and Fire Neapolitan Pizzeria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Italian · Pizza	35 Essex St	open
Yara Chocolate	Dessert		134 W Emerson St	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	21	21	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1995	22	22	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1996	21	21	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1997	26	26	—	—	—	—	SIC1987
1998	29	24	8	11	5	—	NAICS1997
1999	33	26	10	10	6	—	NAICS1997
2000	33	26	9	10	7	1	NAICS1997
2001	30	22	6	10	6	1	NAICS1997
2002	30	26	8	12	6	—	NAICS1997
2003	32	30	9	13	8	—	NAICS2002
2004	33	30	8	13	8	—	NAICS2002
2005	35	31	7	14	8	1	NAICS2002
2006	35	31	8	13	8	1	NAICS2002
2007	35	33	9	15	9	—	NAICS2002
2008	36	33	9	15	9	—	NAICS2007
2009	38	35	9	18	8	—	NAICS2007
2010	41	38	11	18	9	—	NAICS2007
2011	38	35	10	16	9	—	NAICS2007
2012	39	36	12	15	9	—	NAICS2012
2013	42	39	12	17	10	—	NAICS2012
2014	45	41	12	22	7	—	NAICS2012
2015	43	39	13	18	8	—	NAICS2012
2016	43	40	13	19	8	—	NAICS2012
2017	41	37	12	18	7	—	NAICS2017
2018	45	40	15	18	7	—	NAICS2017
2019	48	42	17	17	8	—	NAICS2017
2020	44	38	15	18	5	—	NAICS2017
2021	48	43	14	21	8	—	NAICS2017
2022	47	43	13	21	9	—	NAICS2022
2023	53	45	14	19	12	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 02176. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
02148	1.8 mi	102	2023
02180	2.3 mi	39	2023
01906	2.5 mi	84	2023
02155	3.3 mi	114	2023
01880	3.4 mi	57	2023
02149	3.4 mi	83	2023
02151	3.9 mi	95	2023
02150	4.3 mi	70	2023
01890	4.4 mi	26	2023
01905	4.4 mi	36	2023
02145	4.7 mi	67	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.