BMIE Market 20120
Fairfax County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020
Profile
| Population (current estimate) | 42,896 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,444 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
|---|---|
| Households | 14,578 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±618 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Population, 2010 Census count | 40,695 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Housing units | 14,217 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04 |
| Median household income | $152,563 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±12,570 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median age | 38.4 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median gross rent | $2,309 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±97 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Median home value | $648,700 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,819 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05 |
| Land area | 18.0 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020 |
| Restaurants | 37 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20120 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents | 6.9 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such |
| Restaurant growth, 5-year | +8.8% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 10-year | +32.1% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, 20-year | +68.2% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Restaurant growth, Longest on file | +1,750.0% DERIVED: 1995 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants |
| Projected restaurants, 2028 | 40 (range 34–46) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.7 per year, r² 0.35) · 80% range · confidence Low · momentum, not a guarantee |
| Projected population, 5 years ahead | Needs more ACS years on file |
| BMIE Market Score | 84 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Consumer Market Score | 95 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 83 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
| Market Momentum Score | 70 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why? |
Map
Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.Trends
Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.
Restaurants by year, with trend and projection
ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20120. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.35, confidence Low.Growth index (first year on file = 100)
Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).Mix of the food-service market
Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents
Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages
Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.Why these scores?
Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.
BMIE Market Score: 84 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Market Score | 95.1 | 95 | 40% | +38.1 |
| Restaurant Opportunity Score | 83.0 | 83 | 35% | +29.0 |
| Market Momentum Score | 69.5 | 70 | 25% | +17.4 |
Consumer Market Score: 95 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population (ACS) | 42,896 | 95 | 40% | +38.0 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 152,563 | 96 | 40% | +38.6 |
| Households (ACS) | 14,578 | 93 | 20% | +18.6 |
Restaurant Opportunity Score: 83 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year restaurant growth | 32.1 | 72 | 35% | +25.3 |
| Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room) | 8.6 | 78 | 25% | +19.4 |
| Population (ACS) | 42,896 | 95 | 20% | +19.0 |
| Median household income (ACS) | 152,563 | 96 | 20% | +19.3 |
Market Momentum Score: 70 (High confidence)
| Component | Value | Rank | Weight | Adds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5-year restaurant growth | 8.8 | 66 | 50% | +33.1 |
| 10-year restaurant growth | 32.1 | 72 | 30% | +21.7 |
| 20-year restaurant growth | 68.2 | 74 | 20% | +14.8 |
A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.
Restaurants on file (58)
By cuisine
Coffee 13 · Asian 12 · Korean 8 · Bakery 6 · American 3 · Dessert 3 · Japanese 3 · Mexican 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Tea / bubble tea 3 · Indian 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Sushi 2 · Thai 2 · BBQ 1 · Breakfast 1 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Chinese 1 · Healthy / salads / bowls 1 · Peruvian 1 · Seafood 1 · Southeast Asian (other) 1 · Vietnamese 1
By type
Restaurant (service type not stated) 35 · Café 13 · Quick service 7 · Bakery 6 · Bar 5 · Dessert 3 · Juice, smoothie, tea 3 · Coffee shop 2 · Delivery-focused 2 · Buffet 1 · Casual dining 1 · Specialty food shop 1 · Other 1 · Winery / distillery / taproom 1
| Name | Type | Cuisine | Address | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Amor Cafe and Pastry | Café · Bakery | Coffee · Bakery | 5107 Westfields Blvd | open |
| Araki Ramen and Bubble Tea | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Asian | 14102 Lee Hwy | open |
| Blue Water Grille | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 5127 Westfields Blvd | open | |
| CAFEIN The Kitchen | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Coffee shop | Coffee | 14106 Lee Hwy | open |
| Cakelore | Bakery · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 5599 Rowena Dr | open |
| Campesino Chicken | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 5049 Weatfields Blvd | open | |
| Campesino Chicken | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Peruvian | 5049 Westfields Blvd | open |
| Carrabba's Italian Grill | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 5805 Trinity Pkwy | open | |
| Chasin' Tails | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Seafood | 5815 Trinity Pkwy | open |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican | 5049 Westfields Blvd | open |
| Clean Eatz Clean Eatz | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Healthy / salads / bowls · Coffee | 5053A Westfields Blvd | open |
| Domino's Domino's Pizza | Quick service · Delivery-focused | Pizza | 14120 C Rt 29 | open |
| Domino's Pizza Domino's Pizza | Delivery-focused · Quick service | Pizza | 5663 Stone Rd Ste 18 | open |
| Don Luis Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Mexican · Latin American (other) | 5127 Westfields Blvd | open |
| Fast Eddie's Sports & Billiards | Bar | American | Bowlero Park&Ride, 13814 Route 29 | open |
| First Watch | Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar | Breakfast · Coffee | Bowlero Park&Ride, 13814 Route 29 | open |
| Gopchang Story - Centreville | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Korean | 13830 Lee Hwy Ste 17 and 18 | open |
| Hunan Cafe | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Chinese · Asian | 5641 Stone Rd | open |
| Hwangbooja Korean Restaurant | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Korean · Asian | 13830 Lee Hwy #11 | open |
| Iron Bag Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 14102 Route 29 | open | |
| Jam Piety, Inc. | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 13830 Lee Hwy | open | |
| Jireh Bakery Cafe | Bakery · Café | Bakery · Korean · Coffee | 13848 Lee Hwy | open |
| K-Project & Sushi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Korean | 5815 Trinity Pkwy | open |
| Kimbap Plus | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Korean · Asian | Bowlero Park&Ride, 13814 Route 29 | open |
| Kokee Tea | Juice, smoothie, tea | Tea / bubble tea | 14106 Lee Hwy | open |
| Kokee Tea - Centreville | Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Tea / bubble tea · Coffee | 5079 Westfields Blvd | open |
| Kung Fu Tea Kung Fu Tea | Juice, smoothie, tea · Café | Tea / bubble tea · Coffee | 13830 Lee Hwy #5 | open |
| Malaysian Kopitiam | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Southeast Asian (other) · Asian | 5085 Westfields Blvd | open |
| Matsu | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 5635 Stone Rd | open |
| McDonald's McDonald's | Quick service | Burgers · American | 5633 Stone Rd | open |
| Meat Project | Restaurant (service type not stated) | BBQ · Korean · Asian | 5825 Trinity Pkwy | open |
| Melody Macarons | Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert | Bakery · Dessert | 5212 High Grove Hills Ln | open |
| Mi Casita Restaurant #2 | Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other | Sandwiches · Latin American (other) · Mexican | 5649 Stone Rd | open |
| MoMo’s Next Door Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 5262 Jule Star Dr | open |
| Morak | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Korean · Asian | 5639 Stone Rd | open |
| Novaknows Organo Gold | Café | Coffee | 5003 Westfields Blvd | open |
| Ocha Thai Kitchen and Cafe | Café | Thai · Coffee · Asian | 5037 Westfields Blvd | open |
| Pepper Club | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Indian | 5639 Stone Rd | open |
| Pho Hoang | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Vietnamese | 13830 Lee Hwy #9 | open |
| Popeyes Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen | Quick service | Chicken / wings · Cajun, Creole, Southern | 5131 Westfields Blvd | open |
| Preet Palace | Buffet · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Indian | 1913 14112 Lee Hwy | open |
| Quickway Japanese Hibachi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Japanese · Sushi · Asian | 5045 Westfields Blvd | open |
| Siena Restaurant Lounge | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 5127 Westfields Blvd | open | |
| Siroo and Jook Story Siroo Juk Story and Tea Café Centreville | Café | Korean · Coffee · Asian | 13830 Lee Hwy | open |
| Soowon Galbi | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 14102 Route 29 | open | |
| Starbucks Starbucks | Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café | Coffee | 5623 Stone Rd | open |
| Subway Subway | Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated) | Sandwiches | 5047 Westfields Blvd | open |
| Tailgaters Sports Grill | Bar · Casual dining | American | 5111 Westfields Blvd | open |
| TD's Deli | Specialty food shop · Quick service | Sandwiches | 5135 Westfields Blvd | open |
| Texas Donuts Texas Donuts Centreville | Bakery · Dessert | Dessert · Bakery | 13830 Lee Hwy #4 | open |
| Thai Kitchen | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Thai · Asian | 5653 Stone Rd | open |
| The Island Games | Café | Coffee | 5107 Westfields Blvd | open |
| The Winery at Bull Run | Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar | 15950 Lee Hwy | open | |
| Uptown Cafe | Café | Coffee | 5870 Trinity Pkwy #150 | open |
| Uptown Trinity Centre Inc | Restaurant (service type not stated) | 5870 Trinity Pkwy Ste 150 | open | |
| Velocity 5 Centreville | Bar | 5825 Trinity Pkwy | open | |
| Virginia Bagel | Bakery | Bakery | 5621 Stone Rd | open |
| Ledo Pizza | Restaurant (service type not stated) | Pizza | 5081 Westfields Blvd | closed |
Restaurant establishments over time
| Year | All food service | Restaurants | Full-service | Limited-service | Snack & beverage | Bars | Industry codes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | 2 | 2 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1996 | 7 | 7 | — | — | — | — | SIC1987 |
| 1997 | 25 | 24 | — | — | — | 1 | SIC1987 |
| 1998 | 24 | 23 | 12 | 6 | 4 | 1 | NAICS1997 |
| 1999 | 24 | 22 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 2 | NAICS1997 |
| 2000 | 21 | 21 | 13 | 5 | 2 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2001 | 22 | 22 | 13 | 5 | 3 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2002 | 26 | 26 | 13 | 10 | 2 | — | NAICS1997 |
| 2003 | 23 | 22 | 9 | 10 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2004 | 28 | 27 | 11 | 13 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2005 | 29 | 28 | 14 | 10 | 4 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2006 | 30 | 29 | 15 | 10 | 4 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2007 | 25 | 24 | 12 | 9 | 3 | — | NAICS2002 |
| 2008 | 24 | 23 | 11 | 8 | 4 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2009 | 27 | 26 | 16 | 7 | 3 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2010 | 29 | 28 | 16 | 8 | 4 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2011 | 29 | 27 | 14 | 8 | 5 | — | NAICS2007 |
| 2012 | 34 | 32 | 16 | 11 | 5 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2013 | 31 | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2014 | 31 | 28 | 15 | 8 | 5 | 1 | NAICS2012 |
| 2015 | 28 | 27 | 14 | 8 | 5 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2016 | 38 | 37 | 20 | 12 | 5 | — | NAICS2012 |
| 2017 | 39 | 36 | 17 | 14 | 5 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2018 | 35 | 34 | 15 | 15 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2019 | 34 | 32 | 16 | 12 | 4 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2020 | 33 | 31 | 15 | 11 | 5 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2021 | 35 | 32 | 15 | 11 | 6 | — | NAICS2017 |
| 2022 | 37 | 35 | 18 | 12 | 5 | — | NAICS2022 |
| 2023 | 40 | 37 | 18 | 12 | 6 | — | NAICS2022 |