BMIE Market 77578

Brazoria County, Texas · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	30,210 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,558 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	9,814 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±629 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,672 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	4,613 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$134,016 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±19,211 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.9 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,005 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±414 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$377,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±16,406 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	38.4 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	19 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 77578
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	6.3 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+72.7% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+90.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 20-year	+850.0% DERIVED: 2003 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+533.3% DERIVED: 1994 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	20 (range 16–23) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.7 per year, r² 0.73) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	91 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	90 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	90 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	94 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence High · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 77578. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.73, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Texas and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 1,534, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	90.2	90	40%	+36.1
Restaurant Opportunity Score	89.7	90	35%	+31.4
Market Momentum Score	93.6	94	25%	+23.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	30,210	89	40%	+35.6
Median household income (ACS)	134,016	94	40%	+37.5
Households (ACS)	9,814	85	20%	+17.0

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	90	90	35%	+31.4
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	6.3	87	25%	+21.8
Population (ACS)	30,210	89	20%	+17.8
Median household income (ACS)	134,016	94	20%	+18.8

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 94 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	72.7	94	50%	+46.8
10-year restaurant growth	90	90	30%	+26.9
20-year restaurant growth	850	99	20%	+19.9

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (65)

By cuisine

Dessert 11 · American 10 · Bakery 7 · Burgers 5 · Coffee 5 · Mexican 5 · BBQ 4 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 4 · Seafood 4 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Chicken / wings 2 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Sandwiches 2 · Asian 1 · Breakfast 1 · Chinese 1 · Japanese 1 · Pizza 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 26 · Quick service 25 · Dessert 12 · Bakery 9 · Bar 4 · Café 4 · Coffee shop 4 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Casual dining 3 · Specialty food shop 2

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aki Sushi & Asian Fusion AKI Mont Belvieu	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	17307 Hwy 6	open
Bamboo Wok	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chinese	20514 Highway 6 Ste C	open
Big Horn BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	20211 Hwy 6	open
Billy Dano's Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	19931 Hwy 6	open
Booth Town Center Whataburger	Quick service		17311 State Highway 6 N	open
Brisa's Tex Mex Restaurant	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Southwestern / Tex-Mex · Mexican · Latin American (other)	19303 Hwy 6	open
Burger King Burger King	Quick service	Burgers · American	17657 Hwy 6	open
Cajun Luv Bugs	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Cajun, Creole, Southern	19230 Morris Ave	open
Chef Saucedo’s Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bakery	American · Bakery	4415 Bahler Ave	open
Chipotle Mexican Grill Chipotle Mexican Grill	Quick service	Mexican	17307 Hwy 6 #550	open
Church's Texas Chicken Church's Chicken	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	17510 Morris Avenue	open
Corey's Kitchen And Elite Catering Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		20709 Highway 6	open
Dairy Queen	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Ice cream / frozen desserts	17515 Highway 6	open
Dear Donut Man - Manvel Dear Donut Man - Alvin	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	19433 Morris Ave	open
DQ Grill & Chill DQ Grill & Chill	Quick service		17657 Highway 6	open
Dunkin' Dunkin'	Quick service		21708 State Hwy 288	open
Dynamite Nutrition	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea	20351 Highway 6 Ste E	open
Einstein Bros. Bagels Einstein Bros. Bagels	Quick service		17307 Highway 6	open
Em's Seafood Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	11540 Magnolia Pkwy Ste A	open
Emily's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	20211 Hwy 6	open
Firehouse Subs Meridiana Marketplace Firehouse Subs	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Quick service	Sandwiches	19804 Morris Ave	open
Five Guys Five Guys	Quick service		21716 State Highway 288	open
Four Two Cafe	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	18909 TX-6	open
Great American Cookies	Dessert	Dessert	17221 Highway 6, Ste 106	open
Great American Cookies Great American Cookies	Quick service		17221 Hwy 6, #106	open
Hando Coffee Bar	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	10237 Bailey Rd	open
Honore's Cajun Cafe Honore's Cajun Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern	19430 Hwy 6	open
Jack in the Box	Quick service		17502 Highway 6	open
Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service		Hwy 6 & Hwy 288	open
Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service		17307 State Hwy 6, Ste 104	open
Laredo Taco Company	Restaurant (service type not stated)		20135 Morris Ave	open
Ledia Custom Cakes	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	46 Rodeo Crest Dr	open
LoneStar Smokehouse	Specialty food shop · Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	20539 Morris Ave	open
Los Toritos - Manvel - Inside Motu Valero	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other) · Mexican	10309 Bailey Rd	open
Manvel Seafood & Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	Seafood	19015 Hwy 6	open
Marble Slab Creamery Marble Slab Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	17221 Hwy 6	open
Marco's Pizza Marco's Pizza	Quick service		19710 Morris Ave Unit #B	open
Marq-E Donuts & Coffee	Bakery · Dessert · Coffee shop	Dessert · Coffee · Bakery	11540 Magnolia Pkwy Ste F	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service		10421 Bailey Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service		19706 Morris Ave	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service	Burgers · American	17213 Hwy 6	open
Mr Crawfish	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood	19430 Highway 6	open
Old Bucs Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	20351 Morris Ave Hwy 6	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	20202 Morris Avenue Brazoria	open
Shipley Do-Nuts	Bakery · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert	Dessert	19429 Highway 6	open
Shipley Do-Nuts Shipley Do-Nuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert	19425 Hwy 6	open
Shipley's Do-Nuts Shipley Do-Nuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	10447 Bailey Rd	open
Smoothie King Smoothie King	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	21716 S Highway 288	open
Smoothie King	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies	21716 State Hwy 288, Ste 101	open
Sonic Drive-In Sonic Drive-In	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)		17518 Hwy 6	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	7326 Bluewater St	open
Subway Subway	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	17514 Hwy 6, Diamond Shamrock C-Store	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	17514 Highway 6	open
The Burger Barn The Burger Barn - Manvel	Casual dining · Bar	Burgers · American	19405 Hwy 6	open
The Spot Ice House	Bar		9516 Turner Dr	open
The Sprinkle Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Dessert · Bakery	Bakery · Dessert	10703 Leedy Rd	open
Tropical Smoothie Cafe Tropical Smoothie Cafe	Juice, smoothie, tea · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Juice / smoothies · Coffee	19431 Highway 6	open
True Texas BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	17119 Highway 6	open
Twisted Sisters	Bar		5302 Masters	open
Waffle House Waffle House	Casual dining	American · Breakfast	2690 County Rd 59	open
Weekley's Shaved Ice & Snacks	Dessert	Dessert	7231 McCoy Rd	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	20140 Morris Ave., Suite A	open
Whataburger Whataburger	Quick service	Burgers · American	17311 State Highway 6 N	open
Wingstop Wingstop	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	19431 Morris Ave Suite 130	open
Las Heladas Llc	Restaurant (service type not stated)		22217 Highway 6	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
1994	5	3	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1995	3	2	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1996	2	1	—	—	—	1	SIC1987
1997	5	3	—	—	—	2	SIC1987
1998	5	3	1	2	—	2	NAICS1997
1999	7	4	1	3	—	2	NAICS1997
2000	6	4	1	3	—	2	NAICS1997
2001	4	3	1	2	—	1	NAICS1997
2002	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS1997
2003	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2004	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	4	4	3	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	7	7	4	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	6	6	3	3	—	—	NAICS2007
2010	8	8	4	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2011	10	10	5	3	2	—	NAICS2007
2012	9	9	5	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	10	10	5	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	13	13	8	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	12	12	7	4	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	10	10	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	11	11	5	4	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	14	14	7	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	13	13	6	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	16	15	6	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	17	16	7	6	3	—	NAICS2022
2023	20	19	9	7	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 77578. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
77584	4.2 mi	181	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.