BMIE Market 85138

Pinal County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	55,260 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1,204 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	17,427 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±713 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	33,633 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	13,392 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$95,867 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±3,499 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	37.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$1,974 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±106 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$378,800 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,381 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	84.8 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	12 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85138
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	Not yet derived
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+33.3% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+200.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,100.0% DERIVED: 2008 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	18 (range 14–22) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.9 per year, r² 0.73) · 80% range · confidence High · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	91 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	90 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	94 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	90 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85138. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.9 restaurants per year, r² 0.73, confidence High.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	89.6	90	40%	+35.8
Restaurant Opportunity Score	94.0	94	35%	+32.9
Market Momentum Score	89.7	90	25%	+22.4

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	55,260	98	40%	+39.2
Median household income (ACS)	95,867	78	40%	+31.2
Households (ACS)	17,427	96	20%	+19.2

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 94 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	200	97	35%	+34.1
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	2.2	99	25%	+24.7
Population (ACS)	55,260	98	20%	+19.6
Median household income (ACS)	95,867	78	20%	+15.6

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 90 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	33.3	85	50%	+53.2
10-year restaurant growth	200	97	30%	+36.5

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (56)

By cuisine

American 14 · Mexican 11 · Dessert 7 · Bakery 5 · Coffee 5 · Asian 3 · Burgers 3 · Japanese 3 · Juice / smoothies 3 · Latin American (other) 3 · Pizza 3 · BBQ 2 · Healthy / salads / bowls 2 · Italian 2 · Sushi 2 · Tea / bubble tea 2 · Breakfast 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Chicken / wings 1 · Filipino 1 · Greek 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Indian 1 · Mediterranean 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Vegetarian 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 29 · Quick service 11 · Dessert 7 · Bar 6 · Casual dining 6 · Bakery 5 · Café 5 · Food truck 5 · Juice, smoothie, tea 4 · Other 3 · Brewery / taproom 1 · Coffee shop 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Alibertos Mexican Food Aliberto’s Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	44480 W Honeycutt Rd	open
Bahama Buck's Bahama Buck's	Dessert	Dessert	17470 N Porter Rd	open
Banez Kitchen	Food truck	Filipino · Asian	Parking Lot, 20595 N John Wayne Pkwy	open
Beez Kneez Bubble Tea	Juice, smoothie, tea	Tea / bubble tea · Juice / smoothies	17945 Regent Dr	open
Birria Copa	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Mexican · American	17945 N Regent Dr	open
BIRRIERIA GUAJILLO COMPOUND	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	722 Vah-Ki Rd	open
Bootleggers BBQ Emporium	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · American	44301 W Maricopa Casa Grande Hwy	open
BoSa Donuts BoSa Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	17430 N Porter Rd Ste 120	open
Boy Boy Boba	Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Tea / bubble tea · Japanese · Coffee	17945 Regent Dr	open
Bread by the Garden	Bakery	Bakery	40615 W James Ln	open
Carl's Jr. Carl's Jr.	Quick service	Burgers · American	21000 N John Wayne Pkwy	open
Carl’s Jr.	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	20015 N John Wayne Pkwy	open
Cold Stone Creamery Cold Stone Creamery	Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts · Dessert	17430 N Porter Rd, Ste 100	open
Copa Craze	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Healthy / salads / bowls	38242 W Nina St	open
Copas Ala Cart	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Coffee · American	45138 W Madison Ave	open
Dickey's Barbecue Pit	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	41650 W Maricopa Casa Grande Hwy	open
Foxy Cuisine	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Latin American (other)	43911 W Palo Ceniza Way	open
Francisco's Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	20800 N Maricopa Rd Ste 115	open
Great Day Cafe	Café	Coffee	Maricopa Furniture, 44301 W Maricopa Casa Grande Hwy	open
Gyro Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mediterranean · Greek	20987 N John Wayne Pkwy Ste B102	open
Helen's Kitchen	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	20987 N John Wayne Pkwy Suite B-101	open
Honeycutt Coffee Cafe	Café · Coffee shop · Bar	Coffee	44400 Honeycutt Rd Ste 109	open
HQ Lounge	Bar	American	19640 N John Wayne Pkwy	open
M Mountain Brewing Company	Brewery / taproom · Bar	American	44235 W Mescal St	open
Mandy's Wine Bar	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)		41600 W Smith Enke Rd	open
McDonald's McDonald's	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers	41710 W Maricopa Casa Grande Highway	open
Miss Bugs Treats- Maricopa,Az LLC	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	41178 W Hayden Dr	open
Namkeen Dhaba	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	17945 Regent Dr	open
Nando's Mexican Cafe Nando's Mexican Cafe	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · American	44460 W Edison Rd	open
Native Grill & Wings Native Grill & Wings	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	21164 N John Wayne Pkwy	open
Nekter Juice Bar Nekter Juice Bar	Juice, smoothie, tea	Juice / smoothies · Vegetarian · Healthy / salads / bowls	44360 W Edison Rd	open
Papa Johns Pizza Papa John's Pizza	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza	41620 Casa Grande Hwy Ste 107	open
Pardon My Cheesesteak	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	20429 N John Wayne Pkwy	open
Rancho El Dorado	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican		open
Raspados Locos	Food truck · Quick service	Mexican		open
Red-Headed Step Taco	Quick service · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	John Wayne Parkway	open
Rili B's Taco Shop Maricopa Rili-B's Taco Shop	Quick service	Mexican	19975 N John Wayne Pkwy	open
Rosati's Pizza Rosati's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	21423 N John Wayne Pkwy #102	open
Savage Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Other	Japanese · Sushi	44301 W Maricopa Casa Grande Hwy	open
Say Sushi	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Japanese · Sushi · Asian	21101 N John Wayne Pkwy e103	open
Slim Chickens Slim Chickens	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	41740 W Maricopa Casa Grande Hwy	open
Sofrito Tan Rico	Food truck			open
Sonora Hotdogs Quesabirrias	Restaurant (service type not stated)		44301 W Maricopa Casa Grande Hwy	open
Sunday's Soul Food and Catering	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	17945 Regent Dr	open
SVGK \| Maricopa AZ	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Asian	41800 W Maricopa-Casa Grande Hwy	open
Sweet Cravings	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	Inside StageStop Marketplace, 44301 W Maricopa-Casa Grande Hwy	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	42080 W. Maricopa-Casa Grande Hwy	open
Taco Las Presas	Food truck	Mexican	18316 N Soft Wind Dr	open
The New Sunrise Cafe	Café	Breakfast · Coffee · American	104 N John Wayne Pkwy	open
The Silver Spur Grill	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar		42660 W Rancho El Dorado Pkwy	open
The Soul Food Shak	Quick service		44301 W Maricopa Casa Grande Hwy	open
Vero Chicago Pizza Vero Chicago Pizza - North Chandler	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	19975 N John Wayne Pkwy Ste 110	open
Walmart Bakery	Bakery	Bakery	41650 W Maricopa Casa Grande Hwy	open
Wetzel's Pretzels	Other · Dessert · Quick service	Dessert	41650 W maricopa-casa Grande Highway	open
Wetzel's Pretzels	Other · Dessert · Quick service	Dessert	41650 W Maricopa Casa Grande Hwy	open
Wide Daddys LLC	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	American	17945 Regent Dr	open

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2008	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2007
2012	4	3	—	1	2	—	NAICS2012
2013	7	4	—	1	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	5	4	1	1	2	—	NAICS2012
2015	7	6	1	1	4	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	6	1	3	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	9	8	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	10	9	—	6	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	13	12	—	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	16	14	—	10	3	—	NAICS2017
2021	15	13	—	9	4	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	9	—	7	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	18	12	—	9	3	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85138. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.