BMIE Market 85396

Maricopa County, Arizona · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	42,181 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,784 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	14,507 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±701 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	12,163 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	5,615 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$114,056 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±7,615 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	40.5 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,243 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±420 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$482,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,604 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	99.6 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	18 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 85396
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	2.5 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+157.1% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+80.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,700.0% DERIVED: 2005 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	17 (range 11–23) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.8 per year, r² 0.45) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	92 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	92 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	91 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	95 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 85396. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.8 restaurants per year, r² 0.45, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Arizona and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 324, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 92 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	91.8	92	40%	+36.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	91.3	91	35%	+31.9
Market Momentum Score	94.7	95	25%	+23.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 92 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	42,181	95	40%	+37.9
Median household income (ACS)	114,056	88	40%	+35.3
Households (ACS)	14,507	93	20%	+18.6

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 91 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	80	89	35%	+31.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.3	94	25%	+23.5
Population (ACS)	42,181	95	20%	+19.0
Median household income (ACS)	114,056	88	20%	+17.7

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 95 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	157.1	98	50%	+61.3
10-year restaurant growth	80	89	30%	+33.4

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (51)

By cuisine

Coffee 8 · American 7 · Mexican 7 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 3 · Pizza 3 · Sandwiches 3 · Burgers 2 · Chicken / wings 2 · Italian 2 · Latin American (other) 2 · Asian 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Japanese 1 · Seafood 1 · Southwestern / Tex-Mex 1 · Steakhouse 1 · Sushi 1 · Tea / bubble tea 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 22 · Quick service 12 · Bar 10 · Café 7 · Coffee shop 7 · Casual dining 5 · Food truck 5 · Bakery 4 · Dessert 4 · Specialty food shop 2 · Delivery-focused 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Other 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
ANTHEM Coffee & Tea \| Verrado	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Tea / bubble tea	21084 W Main St	open
Barro's Pizza Barro's Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	20730 W Market St	open
Belly's Mexican Food	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1807 N 195th Ave	open
Blondie's Sweet Shop	Bakery	Bakery		open
Bosa Donuts BoSa Donuts	Bakery · Dessert	Dessert · Bakery	20960 W Sentinel Dr #108	open
Burger King	Restaurant (service type not stated)		19590 W Indian School Rd	open
Burritos Delicias Y Mas	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	1419 N Jackrabbit Trl	open
Café Zupas Café Zupas	Quick service		1665 North Verrado Way	open
Ciao Grazie	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	21051 W Main St	open
Cold Beers & Cheeseburgers Cold Beers & Cheeseburgers	Bar · Casual dining	Burgers	1645 N Verrado Way	open
Culver's Culver's	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Burgers · American	1540 N Verrado Way	open
Dutch Bros Coffee Dutch Bros Coffee Jackson County	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	1775 N Verrado Way	open
East coaster foods	Café · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Food truck	Coffee	30405 W McKinley St	open
Einstein Bros. Bagels Einstein Bros. Bagels	Quick service		1585 North Verrado Way	open
Hot Dogs La India	Quick service · Food truck		318 N Palo Verde Rd	open
Indigo Grille	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	26577 W Desert Vista Blvd	open
Jersey Mike's Jersey Mike's Subs	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	1775 N Verrado Way Suite 101	open
Jimmy John's Jimmy John's	Quick service · Specialty food shop	Sandwiches	19550 W Indian School Rd Suite 103	open
Krispy Krunchy Chicken	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Chicken / wings	1419 N Jackrabbit Trl	open
la cocina mexicana & more	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other)	19619 W Pinchot Dr	open
Las pekes hot dogs y tacos	Quick service · Food truck		W tartesso pkwy	open
Los Ceviches	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Seafood · Latin American (other)	W McDowell Rd, N Jackrabbit Trail	open
Mi sazon	Food truck	Mexican	29100 W Pierce St	open
One Story Social Dining	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining · Bar	American	19580 W Indian School Rd	open
Orange Leaf Frozen Yogurt Orange Leaf Frozen Yogurt	Other · Dessert	Ice cream / frozen desserts	21084 W Main St	open
Paris Baguette Paris Baguette	Bakery · Quick service · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	1585 N Verrado Way	open
Pizza Hut Pizza Hut	Quick service · Delivery-focused	Pizza	19580 W Indian School Rd Maricopa	open
Que Chulada Taqueria	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Southwestern / Tex-Mex	W Van Buren St	open
Rosie's Taco Shop	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican	21055 W Main St	open
Saguaro Sweet Tooth LLC	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	31071 W Osborn Rd	open
Starbucks Starbucks	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	Papago FWY & North Verrado Way	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	1580 N Verrado Way	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Café	Coffee	19676 W Indian School Rd	open
Subway	Quick service		27173 W Potter Dr	open
Subway Subway	Quick service	Sandwiches	19491 N Canyon Springs Blvd, Shell C-Store/Gas Station	open
Taco Bell Taco Bell	Quick service	Mexican	1560 N. Verrado Way	open
Tartesso Food Trucks	Food truck		N 303rd Ave	open
Tempo Urban Bistro	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	21067 W Main St	open
The Cliff House at The Victory Course	Restaurant (service type not stated)	American	20855 Tiger Mountain Dr	open
The Koves	Bar		W Mitchell Ave	open
The Lobby Bar & Patio	Bar		1550 N Verrado Way	open
The Vic Bar + Kitchen	Casual dining · Bar		5325 N Verrado Way	open
VASO LOCO	Restaurant (service type not stated)		W Van Buren St & N Sun Valley Pkwy	open
Verrado Coffee Company	Coffee shop	Coffee	1829 N Verrado Way	open
Verrado Grille	Casual dining · Restaurant (service type not stated) · Bar	American	4242 N Golf Dr	open
W & Z Asian Bistro and Sushi Bar	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Asian · Sushi · Japanese	20960 W Sentinel Dr #102	open
Waddell's Longhorn LongHorn Steakhouse Malaysia	Bar · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Steakhouse	1629 N 195th Ave, N Jackrabbit Trail	open
West Rose Tasting Room	Bar		20940 W Sentinel Dr	open
Wingstop Wingstop	Quick service	Chicken / wings · American	1580 N. Verrado Way, Suite 101	open
Zero Dark 30 Coffee Roaster	Coffee shop · Café	Coffee	20618 W Minnezona Ave	open
Degino Coffee	Coffee shop	Coffee	20751 W Market St	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2005	1	1	—	—	1	—	NAICS2002
2006	3	3	2	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	2	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	1	1	1	—	—	—	NAICS2007
2009	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2010	3	3	1	1	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	6	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	7	7	5	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	10	10	5	2	3	—	NAICS2012
2014	5	5	3	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2015	6	6	4	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2016	7	6	4	1	1	—	NAICS2012
2017	8	8	3	—	4	—	NAICS2017
2018	7	7	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	7	7	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	7	7	3	—	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	11	11	4	5	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	12	5	5	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	20	18	7	6	5	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 85396. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

None within 5 miles.