BMIE Market 20105

Loudoun County, Virginia · ZCTA boundaries as of 2020

Profile

Population (current estimate)	37,639 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±2,404 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01003_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Households	10,830 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±683 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B11001_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Population, 2010 Census count	11,315 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · POP10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Housing units	3,855 2010 Census count · Decennial Census · Census Gazetteer ZCTA 2010 · HU10 · on 2010 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-04
Median household income	$219,123 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±10,772 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B19013_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median age	36.2 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±1 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B01002_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median gross rent	$2,752 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±217 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25064_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Median home value	$858,900 2020–2024 ACS 5-year estimate ±40,297 · American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates · ACS 5-Year 2024 (2020-2024) ZCTA · B25077_001E · on 2020 boundaries · retrieved 2026-09-05
Land area	35.7 sq mi Census Gazetteer 2020
Restaurants	18 2023 · U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns 2023 detail (NAICS2022) · by USPS ZIP 20105
Restaurants per 10,000 residents	7.1 DERIVED: 2010 restaurants (ZIP) ÷ 2010 Census population (ZCTA) · different years, stated as such
Restaurant growth, 5-year	+5.9% DERIVED: 2018 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, 10-year	+125.0% DERIVED: 2013 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Restaurant growth, Longest on file	+1,700.0% DERIVED: 2004 → 2023, ZIP Code Business Patterns restaurants
Projected restaurants, 2028	21 (range 16–27) FORECAST · linear trend v1 fitted to 2013–2023 (11 points, +0.7 per year, r² 0.43) · 80% range · confidence Medium · momentum, not a guarantee
Projected population, 5 years ahead	Needs more ACS years on file
BMIE Market Score	90 / 100 MODELED · bmie_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Consumer Market Score	94 / 100 MODELED · consumer_market_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Restaurant Opportunity Score	95 / 100 MODELED · restaurant_opportunity_score v1 · confidence High · why?
Market Momentum Score	75 / 100 MODELED · market_momentum_score v1 · confidence Medium · why?

Map

Boundary: U.S. Census Bureau cartographic file, 1:500k, 2020 vintage. Basemap © OpenStreetMap contributors.

Trends

Historical lines are published counts. Dashed lines are derived: a least-squares trend through the last decade, extended as a FORECAST with its 80% range. Momentum, not a guarantee.

Restaurants by year, with trend and projection

ZIP Code Business Patterns, USPS ZIP 20105. Projection: linear trend v1, fitted 2013–2023, +0.7 restaurants per year, r² 0.43, confidence Medium.

Growth index (first year on file = 100)

Each category relative to its own first published count. Full/limited split is unavailable under SIC (before 1998).

Mix of the food-service market

Share of all food-service establishments. "Other" = snack bars, caterers, contractors, mobile.

Population and restaurants per 10,000 residents

Population points: 2010 Census count and ACS 5-year estimates on file (more vintages load over time). Density uses the population point within two years of each restaurant count. Population projection appears once three or more ACS years are loaded.

Restaurant growth vs. Virginia and U.S. averages

Averages are the mean growth across all ZCTAs with the figure (state n = 591, U.S. n = 24,852). DERIVED from ZIP Code Business Patterns.

Why these scores?

Each score is a weighted average of national percentile ranks (0 = lowest of all ZCTAs with that figure, 100 = highest). Weights are set in the model registry, not in code, and every score carries its model version.

BMIE Market Score: 90 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Consumer Market Score	94.3	94	40%	+37.7
Restaurant Opportunity Score	94.7	95	35%	+33.2
Market Momentum Score	74.6	75	25%	+18.7

Health index, advertising, whitespace, competition and risk components join in later versions.

Consumer Market Score: 94 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
Population (ACS)	37,639	93	40%	+37.2
Median household income (ACS)	219,123	99	40%	+39.7
Households (ACS)	10,830	87	20%	+17.4

Percentile-rank composite. No spending model yet: income and size stand in for spending capacity.

Restaurant Opportunity Score: 95 (High confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
10-year restaurant growth	125	95	35%	+33.2
Restaurants per 10,000 residents (lower = more room)	4.8	92	25%	+23.1
Population (ACS)	37,639	93	20%	+18.6
Median household income (ACS)	219,123	99	20%	+19.9

Whitespace, competition and demand signals are not yet available; this version uses growth, density, size and income only.

Market Momentum Score: 75 (Medium confidence)

Component	Value	Rank	Weight	Adds
5-year restaurant growth	5.9	62	50%	+39.0
10-year restaurant growth	125	95	30%	+35.6

Restaurant-count growth only until population and income growth series exist.

A high score is a statistical position among all U.S. ZCTAs, not a prediction that a restaurant will succeed.

Restaurants on file (25)

By cuisine

American 7 · Bakery 3 · Coffee 3 · BBQ 2 · Dessert 2 · Indian 2 · Italian 2 · Pizza 2 · Burgers 1 · Cajun, Creole, Southern 1 · Filipino 1 · Ice cream / frozen desserts 1 · Juice / smoothies 1 · Latin American (other) 1 · Mexican 1 · Sandwiches 1 · Spanish / tapas 1

By type

Restaurant (service type not stated) 11 · Bar 4 · Casual dining 4 · Bakery 3 · Café 3 · Dessert 3 · Winery / distillery / taproom 3 · Brewery / taproom 2 · Coffee shop 2 · Food truck 1 · Juice, smoothie, tea 1 · Quick service 1

Name	Type	Cuisine	Address	Status
Aldie Biryani Grill	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Indian · American	42010 Village Center Plaza	open
Aldie Pandesal LLC	Bakery	Bakery	25185 Great Berkhamsted Dr	open
Asia Nine	Restaurant (service type not stated)		42010 Village Center Plz	open
Bruster's Real Ice Cream Bruster's Real Ice Cream	Dessert · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Ice cream / frozen desserts	42015 Village Center Plaza	open
Ciro Ristorante Ciro's N.Y. Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated) · Casual dining	Italian · American	42015 Village Center Plaza Ste 155	open
Glory Days Grill Glory Days Grill	Casual dining · Bar	American	42010 Village Center Plz	open
Golly Waffles	Restaurant (service type not stated)		24600 Millstream Dr	open
Hammerdown Barbecue	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ · Cajun, Creole, Southern · American	41153 John Mosby Hwy	open
Joga Arjula	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Mexican · Latin American (other) · Spanish / tapas	42010 VILLAGE CENTER PLZ, SUIT 170	open
Lark Brewing Co.	Brewery / taproom · Casual dining · Bar		24205 James Monroe Hwy	open
Mug N' Muffin	Coffee shop · Café · Bar	Coffee	42020 Village Center Plz	open
Old Farm Winery at Hartland	Winery / distillery / taproom · Bar		23583 Fleetwood Rd	open
Quattro Goombas Brewery	Brewery / taproom · Winery / distillery / taproom	Pizza	22860 James Monroe Hwy	open
SprinkleSpark Cakes	Bakery · Dessert	Bakery · Dessert	25556 Oak Medley Terrace	open
Sri Bheema's Dosa on Wheels	Food truck · Restaurant (service type not stated)	Indian	41105 Little River Tpke	open
Starbucks Coffee Company Starbucks	Coffee shop · Juice, smoothie, tea · Café	Coffee · Juice / smoothies	42015 Village Center Plaza	open
Subway	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Sandwiches	42010 Village Center Plaza, Unit 140, Store No. T-18	open
The Capitol Cafe	Café	Coffee · American	U.S. Capitol Visitor Center	open
The Pit Stop BBQ	Restaurant (service type not stated)	BBQ	US Route 15/50	open
Virginia Wine Country	Winery / distillery / taproom	American		open
Vocelli Pizza Vocelli Pizza	Restaurant (service type not stated)	Pizza · Italian	42010 Village Center Plaza #130	open
Wendy's Wendy's	Quick service	Burgers · American	42035 Village Center Plz	open
Wooden Spoon and Fork	Dessert · Bakery	Filipino · Dessert · Bakery	25008 Striped Maple Dr	open
British Pantry	Bakery	Bakery	41153 John Mosby Hwy	closed
Little Apple Pastry Shop	Bakery	Bakery	23217 Meeting House Lane suite 102	closed

Listings: Overture Maps Places (CDLA-Permissive-2.0), matched into the BMIE restaurant master. Census establishment counts and listing counts differ by definition (Census counts employer establishments in the reference week; listings are places currently mapped).

Restaurant establishments over time

Year	All food service	Restaurants	Full-service	Limited-service	Snack & beverage	Bars	Industry codes
2004	1	1	—	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2005	2	2	—	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2006	2	2	1	1	—	—	NAICS2002
2007	6	5	3	2	—	—	NAICS2002
2008	9	8	4	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2009	10	9	5	2	2	—	NAICS2007
2010	9	8	5	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2011	7	6	3	2	1	—	NAICS2007
2012	8	7	4	2	1	—	NAICS2012
2013	9	8	4	3	1	—	NAICS2012
2014	12	11	4	4	3	—	NAICS2012
2015	14	13	3	6	4	—	NAICS2012
2016	13	12	4	6	2	—	NAICS2012
2017	16	15	6	7	—	—	NAICS2017
2018	18	17	5	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2019	21	18	7	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2020	21	18	7	9	—	—	NAICS2017
2021	20	17	7	8	—	—	NAICS2017
2022	13	11	6	4	—	—	NAICS2022
2023	20	18	8	9	—	—	NAICS2022

U.S. Census Bureau, ZIP Code Business Patterns, by USPS ZIP 20105. Categories are BMIE roll-ups of the published SIC/NAICS codes (full vs limited service is not split under SIC). More years load in stages.

Nearby markets (within 5 miles)

ZCTA	Distance	Restaurants	Year
20148	4.8 mi	58	2023

Distance is centroid to centroid (Census Gazetteer). Restaurants: latest ZBP year on file for that ZIP.